About the Cool Suburbs Assessment

Learn about the purpose and science behind this new release of the Cool Suburbs Assessment. You can discover how the assessment builds on the functionality of the original tool, who it is for and how it supports informed decisions on planning for heat resilience in urban developments.

Heat in NSW

Learn more about extreme heat risks and impacts in NSW and how these are changing the local climate.

Heat risks and impacts are on the rise

In Australia, heat is one of the greatest risks to our community, economy, and ecosystems (1). It is already making significant demands of essential infrastructure including energy grids, hospitals, and transport networks (2) and is our most deadly natural hazard, causing more fatalities than all other natural hazards combined (3). Economic impacts of extreme heat range from reduced workforce productivity, health, and safety impacts through to impacts on the built environment and higher energy costs (6).These impacts and risks are expected to keep increasing as heatwaves become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. (4).

Heat has been recognised as a priority issue by national, state, and local organisations including:

Australian Government: National Climate Risk Assessment Report (2024)
NSW Government: NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan, Adapt NSW, State Heatwave Subplan 2023 and Climate Change Policy Framework
NSW Treasury: 2021 Intergenerational Report (21)
WSROC: Turn Down the Heat Strategy and Action Plan 2018
Resilient Sydney: A Strategy for City Resilience 2018
Greater Sydney Commission: Greater Sydney Region Plan and District Plans

Heat factors for NSW

Heat is not unique to NSW, but it does have a particularly significant impact due to:

Distinct climatic conditions for the state;
Large metropolitan populations, along the coastline and inland;
Socio-economic factors; and
Ongoing demand for housing in urban and regional areas.

Climate and geography

New South Wales has extensive geographical diversity, encompassing an area of over 800,000 km2 and a coastline that stretches more than 2,000 km. The Great Dividing Range divides the state into distinct landscapes, with steep escarpments to the east and fertile agricultural plains to the west.

From arid north-western regions to coastal areas, NSW experiences a range of climatic conditions, with diverse rainfall patterns influenced by geography and coastal factors. The Great Dividing Range contributes to rainfall distribution and temperature gradients across the state. These conditions can result in rainfall and temperature extremes that can both have significant impacts on health, infrastructure, and the environment (22).

Population Growth

NSW's population is projected to grow by over 85,000 annually until 2041, with regional areas expected to see an increase of 570,000 to reach 3.7 million by that year (18). Many more people across the state will be at risk of adverse impacts of heat with trends of increasing frequency of hot days further inland, with coastal areas experiencing fewer than 10 hot days annually, compared to over 80 in the far north-west. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk during prolonged hot spells, with implications for health and infrastructure.

Heat outlook

Weather observations across NSW indicate a steady increase in air temperatures, particularly since the 1950s. The rate of temperature rise has accelerated, reaching 0.5°C per decade since 1990. Projections for NSW indicate continued warming in both the near future (2020-2039) and far future (2060-2079), with average temperature increases expected between 0.7°C and 2.1°C, respectively, across all regions (22).

*Figure 1. Overview of how as the climate warms, there will be significantly hotter weather and heatwaves. Source: Climate Council (13).*

Climate projections point to a state-wide increase in hot days, with significant regional variations, particularly in North western NSW, where temperatures above 35°C could occur during up to one third of the year by 2070. These changes are expected mainly in spring and summer, extending into autumn in the far future.

*Figure 1. Climate heat map of NSW. Source Climate Council, illustrating the average number of hot days and nights by 2050 and 2090 (66).*

The Climate Heat Map of NSW (Figure 6) is an interactive tool from the Climate Council, providing insights into future climate trends for each suburb in Australia. The tool visually illustrates the average number of hot days and nights by 2050 and 2090.

Based on under existing climate mitigation actions Bourke is forecasted to encounter an additional 38 days over 35oC per year by 2090. Ivanhoe can expect an additional 26 days, Penrith 13 more days, and Dubbo , 26 additional days exceeding this temperature.